tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post8723172078664469578..comments2023-07-20T06:30:14.363-07:00Comments on Based on Actual Math: World Cup Tournament Odds 6/17Patrickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12505507519580728909noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post-17984688979365195392014-06-18T13:41:06.991-07:002014-06-18T13:41:06.991-07:00Thanks for your comment, I do agree there's a ...Thanks for your comment, I do agree there's a little fishiness about Brazil's rating right this minute. It's calibrated based on what rating makes the most sense given the bookie line on their match-up with Croatia, as well as Croatia's remaining match-ups. All the team ratings are calibrated to best fit all the remaining group stage games, which, when there were 48 of those games and 3 for each team, was lovely. Now that there are getting to be fewer group stage games there's going to be a little more fuzziness around the team ratings until I start incorporating knockout odds and/or prior group stage results. I do wonder if there was a bit of a market overreaction to their loss to Mexico that may be corrected today. If that did happen I'll expect a boost in their team rating when I rerun this evening.<br /><br />Not that incorporating group play results thus far would do much to help Brazil's case ;).Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12505507519580728909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post-89369969876804095592014-06-18T11:01:02.203-07:002014-06-18T11:01:02.203-07:00Now Brazil has only a 51% chance of winning its Ro...Now Brazil has only a 51% chance of winning its Round of 16 game? How's that possible?Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15499120996065805310noreply@blogger.com