tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post1754730743756133243..comments2023-07-20T06:30:14.363-07:00Comments on Based on Actual Math: 2016 ElectionPatrickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12505507519580728909noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post-87727305462010127282016-09-05T17:34:54.238-07:002016-09-05T17:34:54.238-07:00Interesting model you are running here. I was curi...Interesting model you are running here. I was curious as to what you meant by "It simulates the election (over and over), captures the results of each siimulation, and retursn lots and lots of statistical analysis". What exactly does an election simulation consist of for you ?<br /><br />I run a blog over at http://predicttheelection.blogspot.com/ . Essentially I am making my calls on discretionary basis by aggregating the aggregators (538, Real Clear Politics, Predictwise, etc) and looking at historical results. More or less meshes up with most of your trends. However there are some significant differences. I have states like MT and IN for example at an almost certainty for Trump while you have them at a toss up.Adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04829923316269080805noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post-91404971897898088632016-07-17T11:40:55.390-07:002016-07-17T11:40:55.390-07:00Sure thing. Maybe I'll add that as an output /...Sure thing. Maybe I'll add that as an output / graphic but for now it's<br /><br />Expected Electoral Votes<br /><br />Overall:<br />Clinton 335.0 / Trump 203.0<br /><br />If Clinton Wins<br />Clinton 367.8 / Trump 170.2<br /><br />If Trump Wins<br />Clinton 218.8 / 319.2Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12505507519580728909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post-72627112115583251402016-07-13T16:31:54.733-07:002016-07-13T16:31:54.733-07:00Excited about the new model.
I'd like to see ...Excited about the new model.<br /><br />I'd like to see a couple stats you could probably get pretty easily off your simulations - expected electoral votes, expected electoral votes in simulations where Clinton wins and expected electoral votes in simulations where Trump wins. It seems like the election is going to be somewhere in the range of close Trump win to Hillary crushing, and these numbers would speak to that sort of thing.JaredLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08374219319148164119noreply@blogger.com