tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post3414948986829345290..comments2023-07-20T06:30:14.363-07:00Comments on Based on Actual Math: World Cup Tournament Odds 6/15Patrickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12505507519580728909noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post-88209399142988735122014-06-18T09:48:02.098-07:002014-06-18T09:48:02.098-07:00Last 5 seasons in the Premier League: home team wi...Last 5 seasons in the Premier League: home team wins 47%, away team 27%, draw 26%. Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15499120996065805310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3618477121835864822.post-30858793900983766692014-06-18T09:39:11.467-07:002014-06-18T09:39:11.467-07:00Your model has Brazil with only a 58% chance of wi...Your model has Brazil with only a 58% chance of winning its round of 16 game given that it survives the group? This is a flaw. The home field advantage alone, even if playing an equally strong team, would give them a stronger than 58% chance of winning a knockout game. Never mind that they may end up playing a much weaker team, like Chile. If they play Netherlands or Spain they will be 75/25 favorites.Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15499120996065805310noreply@blogger.com