Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Election Model: Gay Marriage in WA Almost Certain to Pass

The current 68,111 vote lead for 'Yes' projects to a 149,614 margin of victory once all the votes are counted. Yesterday was a great day for civil rights.

Because of the heterogeneity between precincts and the self-selection property of voters who mail their ballots on election day (you know who you are!) it's impossible to come up with a good confidence interval around that 150k margin, so I can't make an Official Call.

But it looks very very good for marriage equality.

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