Sunday, June 15, 2014

France vs. Honduras

Check out the original post on the win probability graphs for a little more detail on how they work

Publishing now (1st minute of the game) and adding some notes...

I added a few more notes to explain how the Predicted Game Outcomes Chart works. Using the same model that produces the win probability charts, I simulate 10,000 potential game outcomes and record which results were more common and which were less common. In this case France 1-0 (20% chance) and France 2-0 (17% chance) are the most likely.

In fact, France is a slight favorite to keep a clean sheet!

The chart shows the results of those simulations, with more common results shaded in darker blue, less common shaded in lighter blue, and uncommon results (7-7 tie!) not shaded at all.

No comments:

Post a Comment