Thursday, June 12, 2014

World Cup Math!

Hi there

Off and on over the last 2 years, I've been building a model to calculate win probability in football (soccer) games, and how it changes over the course of a game. It uses the following inputs to calculate each team's change of winning the game. It also uses proprietary secret algorithms. And math!
  • The current score
  • Any red cards that have been given
  • The relative strengths of the two teams playing
  • How much time is left in the game
I plan to make and post these graphs for each world cup game, updating as often as someone who has two kids and actuarial exams to prepare for can. I'll post them all on this page, with the newest games at the top.

Thank for stopping by to take a look. Let's kick things off with Brazil-Croatia!
I'd be happy to answer any questions!


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  2. Do you use your model to bet when the live lines are off compared to your model?

  3. No because I live in USA#1 where those things are difficult/verboten