Tuesday, October 28, 2014

College Football Math: CFP

The first CFP rankings came out today. About an hour ago. I've got an exam tomorrow and won't be doing much work, but I wanted to at least post the following comparison between my model's current ranks and the CFP.

A handful of thoughts:
  • My rankings are intended to be predictive - my model would favor every team against every team ranked below it. I'm not sure what the specific criteria the CFP are using, but I don't think it's quite predictive. For example, I'm not sure they'd say Georgia vs. Arizona is a coinflip, or that East Carolina should be favored over unranked USC.
  • I like how low they have Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State. They're all big names with one loss but the CFP is rightly recognizing that isn't enough to make the top.That said, they still overranked all 3 teams if you ask me.
  • Arizona, East Carolina, Duke, and Louisville, and Utah all seem like they're getting courtesy rankings
  • I'm not sure why they're hating on LSU and  Georgia. Maybe SEC fatigue? I understand. But again, I'm sure they aren't saying Utah should be favored over LSU on a neutral field.
  • I understand why Miss St. is #1, they probably have the best resume. I'm just unconvinced they're the actual best team in the country
What did everyone else think?

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