Before we start, I've added an easy reference collection of everything college football-related. It has links to all my key college football-related material. Just follow the blue arrow.
For the main event:
Last week I was asked how likely we are to end the college football season with no undefeated teams, 1 undefeated team, 2 undefeated teams, and so forth. I think the question was from an Oregon fan grasping for hope.
I started looking into it, and then I remembered: anything that's worth doing is worth overdoing. So instead of only looking for how many teams will go undefeated, I went a little further, and made this. It's all of the possible number of losses, by team, in one chart. It shows the likelihood we end up with each number of teams for each amount of losses. For some specific examples:
- There's a 34% chance with end up with 0 teams that have 0 losses. In other words, there's a 34% chance we end up with no undefeated teams.
- There's only a 19% chance we end up with a winless team (SMU or Kent State)
- 5 losses is the most likely number of losses across the FBS