Wednesday, October 1, 2014

College Football Math Week 6

The 90th percentile Watchability rating for the 2014 regular season is 63.7. What that means is that of all the college football games played in 2014:
  • 90% have Watchability ratings below 63.7
  • 10% have Watchability ratings above 63.7. 

In week 1 there were 5 "90th percentile" games, games with Watchability higher than 63.7, and i
n weeks 2-5 there were 3, 1, 2, and 4 such games respectively.

What about this week? This week there are 10 such games. 10! That's more than any other week in the regular season! Let's look at those 10:

It's an embarrassment of riches. Particularly at 12:30 PM on Saturday. Enjoy this weekend, it could be one of the best of the year.

Team Dashboards
    • I've updated the both the Team Dashboard and the Expanded Dashboard through week 5. 
      • Go check out Michigan, Penn State, and Pittsburgh, they all look hideously depressing
      • In each and every game this season the following teams have performed worse than my model expected: Florida State, North Carolina, Utah State, Southern Methodist, UNLV, Kent State. The graphs for each of these teams go down down down down.

    • Week 6 Watchability Schedule is below
    • Watchability is a measure of how likely a game is to be a close, well-played game
    • What a great week. Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday morning, afternoon and evening, there's always an interesting game to watch.

    • This post has way more detail on everything. Quick refresh:
      • Watchability is a combination measure of how good the two teams playing are and how likely the game is to be close
      • Teams are shaded by their chance to win, the greener the better

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