Sunday, August 9, 2015

2015 College Football is coming!

We're under a month to College Football kickoff! Who's excited!

The model is coming along nicely. The betting lines the model would set for week 1 games are aligning well with those Vegas has already set, and I've made a bunch of technical improvements to the model this year; smoothing out edges.
  • Bowl logic is tighter. It more comprehensively addresses teams with specific bowl tie-ins and conferences with bowl tiers (vs. bowl rankings)
  • Added logic to address the group of five rule
  • Removed Sagarin from the suite of data I used to seed pre-season ratings
  • Inter-conference strength will be calibrated (in part) using games from weeks 1-3
I still have some pre-work (i.e. updated dashboards and expanded dashboards) but I now think I'll also have time for some enhancements.
  1. New and improved CFP Committee Model
  2. Expand "If they win/If they lose" concept to more teams, more weeks, more scenarios (e.g. this post)

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