Last week I was asked to share the results of how the model performed at predicting each game. I do a lot of looking at the results myself, trying to figure out where there are holes in the model and how to patch them, but I've not done a lot of posting about them for a few reasons: 1) I'm not sure the best way to present the data. 2) Looking at a single week's worth of games isn't super insightful.
That said, I'm willing to give it a try, so I made this table. As a start, I'm focusing on which team the model thought would win, and how much confidence it had in that team.
The table below shows each game, my model's predicted winner, the actual winner, and whether the model got it right or wrong. It also shows (and is sorted by) the model's confidence in the pick.
Interested to hear feedback. Is this interesting/valuable? Is the data presented in an understandable way?