Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Nevada Republican Primary

Call it. - originally posted an older image. Fixed.

C'mon Rubio, we're sleepy. Close out that last 1%

Rubio can't quiiiiiiiiite close it out yet.

Looks like we're headed for an early night

Been this way for about 20 minutes too.

Battle for last


Tonight the GOP votes in the Silver State. As per usual I'll be running my bayesian model and posting updates showing who's up, who's down, and how much TRUMP is crushing.

Nevada might turn out to be a little tricky, The model uses county level results to learn and update its estimates, and in Nevada two counties (Washoe and Clark) have almost 90% of voters. But we can always try!

Here's where we're starting the night:


  • I'm using 538s projected vote totals using their polls only model as my priors
  • I'm using a beta distribution as my Bayesian prior updated by its conjugate distribution (binomial)

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