Election Eve Update 4: What To Expect Tomorrow

We're here. 18 months, thousands of man hours, hundreds of maps, and thanks to Donald Trump, more than the usual dose of bigotry and ignorance. But we got through it, and the election is tomorrow.

Before we get to the Official Prediction, I want to talk about how specific state outcomes would move the odds. As it stands now, Clinton is 90% to win and Trump is 9% (remainder is a tie). Here's how some individual state outcomes would change those odds:

• New Hampshire
• If Clinton wins she's 95% to win
• If Trump wins he's 34% to win
• Nevada
• If Clinton wins she's 98% to win
• If Trump wins he's 28% to win
• Florida
• If Clinton wins it's over
• If Trump wins he's 30% to win
• North Carolina
• If Clinton wins she's 99% to win
• If Trump wins he's 26% to win
• Ohio
• If Clinton wins it's over
• If Trump wins he's 17% to win
• Iowa
• If Clinton wins she's 98% to win
• If Trump wins he's 13% to win

Official Prediction

• Ohio and Iowa go for Trump
• All the other swing states (NV, CO, NC, FL, NH) go for Clinton
• Clinton wins