It's 2018, and time to do it all over again.
The new model is fairly similar to the 2014 version. That version performed well (notably - identifying Brazil as maybe not an overwhelming favorite), and the underlying logic was good. For this model, I start with country-level team soccer ratings, then optimize with as much available betting data as possible.
As games get played, I'll post pre-game heat maps that indicate which outcomes are most likely for that game (see more about those here). I'll also post in-game annotated graphs that give updated win probability - read more about that here!
I've added a few new things as well :)
On the right hand side of the page, I've got some detailed data about each day's game.
- Teams playing (duh)
- Each team's odds of winning (note: in soccer, ties are possible)
- How each team's chance to advance from pool play depends on the game. For example, if Uruguay wins today, they'll have a 96% chance of advancing from pool play, but if they lose, their chances will be just 44%!
- Game Scores
- Fans of my college football work know that I think it's interesting to try to estimate which games are most interesting & worth watching. I've extended that to the World Cup. These are a work in progress so feedback is appreciated.
- Quality score: Measures how good the two teams are. All things being equal it's more fun to watch Spain vs. Portugal than Saudi Arabia vs. Iran. A higher score means higher quality teams.
- Competitiveness score: How close the game is likely to be. It's more fun to watch two average teams play a tight game than watch Germany beat up on some poor team. A higher score means the game is more likely to be competitive.
- Impact score: How much impact the game has on each team's chances to advance from pool play to the knockout stage. Higher means the game is a bigger deal. For example, Spain and Portugal are likely to advance regardless of their result today, so that game has a low impact score. But Uruguay vs. Egypt is close to do or die for both teams!
Without further ado, happy World Cup!