Thursday, November 29, 2012

MLS Cup Final Odds

The MLS cup final, between the LA Galaxy and Houston Dynamo, will be played on Sunday, The game will be played in LA which gives the Galaxy a significant advantage. Using a similar methodology as my conference finals model I have calculated they are a 2:1 favorite to win the MLS Cup. The following displays the full list of game outcomes and their probabilitles.

I examined what specific goal outcomes were most probable. LA winning 2-1 is the most likely outcome( 12.3%) and with LA winning 1-0 is a close second (11.6%). The most likely winning outcome for Houston is a 2-1 win (7.4%).

All the game outcomes and their probabilities are listed in the chart below. The chart should be read as follows. 

For the likelihood of a 3-1 LA win, find the the column for LA scoring three goals (in the top grey shaded row) then go down until you intersect with the row Houston scoring 1 goal (in the left grey shaded column). The value where they intersect is your probability.. 6.8%.

I put the same data in list format. I went back and forth on which was easier to read and ended up deciding to include them both.

For one last chart I thought it would be interesting to examine total goals scored and their relative probabilities (yes, all the information below is contained in the outcomes chart, but why do all that work when I've done it already!)

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