Saturday, June 21, 2014

World Cup: Germany vs. Ghana

This looks to be the most exciting match of the day. Just check out that grid! I'm sure the USA is on the Germany side on account of higher chance of advancing being more valuable than winning the group.

So much blue! This is just an amazing looking grid. Note that:

  • Only 95% of outcomes are down (5% chance one side scores >6 - as I've said before it could be lower since once a side is up 5 they'd probably ease up, but France didn't today, and scored a 6th seconds after time expired!)
  • No cell is over 10%; a huge array of outcomes are possible, including the actually blue shaded 3, 4, and 5 outcome
  • Yet another high scoring game would certainly be in line with the world cup so far
  • 2-1 is (barely) the most likely outcome, but snooze at that!

This post  has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the predicted outcomes charts work
This post has a little more on the "Who should I root for" section

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