Tuesday, June 24, 2014

World Cup: Ivory Coast vs. Greece, Japan vs. Colombia

I'm very excited about this! Tomorrow during the last two Group C games, I'll be live updating the following graph. It will show, as the two games progress, each of the 4 teams odds of advancing from group play. It's based on an explicit analysis of over 4000 game outcome scenarios, their relative probabilities, and their respective advancement results. It even handles the possibility that Greece and Japan draw lots.

I'll have the usual data to share (on both this and the Group D games) tomorrow morning, but I was super excited to finally get the math working on this graph, so I wanted to share it a little early! I hope you find it interesting/cool.

Those games were more ridiculous that I could have possibly hoped.

 Shoutout of thanks to my beautiful wife for getting these updated midgame when I'm at work and can't!

Pregame Heat Maps

Two very even games. This should be a very exciting sweat as only 1 team is qualified for sure (Colombia) and the other 3 still have a chance to qualify. Ivory Coast are in the strongest position - if they win they're in. 538 has all the advancement scenarios laid out explicitly, so I won't bother repeating them. Just know that the advancement probability chart above takes into account all of them. Happy World Cup!

This post  has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the pregame heat maps work

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