I'll have the usual data to share (on both this and the Group D games) tomorrow morning, but I was super excited to finally get the math working on this graph, so I wanted to share it a little early! I hope you find it interesting/cool.
Those games were more ridiculous that I could have possibly hoped.
Pregame Heat Maps
Two very even games. This should be a very exciting sweat as only 1 team is qualified for sure (Colombia) and the other 3 still have a chance to qualify. Ivory Coast are in the strongest position - if they win they're in. 538 has all the advancement scenarios laid out explicitly, so I won't bother repeating them. Just know that the advancement probability chart above takes into account all of them. Happy World Cup!
This post has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the pregame heat maps work
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