Pregame Heat Maps
The oddsmakers have England not only favored to beat Costa Rica, but slightly favored to win! This has received some LOLs, but my model has a very similar look. England are very close to 50% to win; a draw and a Costa Rica win are roughly 25% each. Should be a closely contested match.
The Uruguay-Italy match looks to be even closer. In fact it's one of the closest of the tournament. The percentages break down 37%/33%/29% for an Italy win/Uruguay win/Draw. Also that game is for the right to advance! Italy advance with a draw or win, Uruguay advance with a win.
This post has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the predicted outcomes charts work
I hope you can give some world cup betting tips too! Cheers!ReplyDelete
2014 FIFA World Cup Bet
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