Wednesday, June 25, 2014

World Cup: Nigeria vs. Argentina & Iran vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina

I've added some explanations / comments to yesterday's ridiculous finish to Group C that will hopefully shed a little more light into how these Advancement Probability graphs work.

Pre-game heat maps

I'm going to stop citing 538 and start citing these great tables that lay out all the explicit advancement scenarios. 
  • If Nigeria win they are in.
  • If Bosnia win Nigeria are in. 
  • If either game ends in a draw Nigeria are in. 
  • The scenarios get interesting when Nigeria lose to Argentina and Iran beat Bosnia. 
Both Bosnia and Argentina are strong favorites, so Nigeria are quite likely to advance.

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