It's after midnight your time, how do you only have 12% of the vote in??? I'm not calling it (but the AP etc. have) on Utah, but I'm calling it a night on myself. Goodnight, thanks for following along.
Idaho - Call for Sanders
Of course, it seems like they releaed 100% of the votes all at once, so is call for Sanders even the right phrase?
Utah - Cruz now 100% to get all the delegates
Utah - Call for Cruz
It's interesting that the networks hav called for Sanders but not Cruz. Clearly I see it the opposite way.
Utah - First Results!
Waiting for Utah, This Sanders guy seems to think we have a rigged economy.
Arizona - Call for Clinton
Arizona - Call for TRUMP
Close to calling for Clinton too.
Added an output to test if a candidate gets >50% in Utah. Currently based on the previously discussed squishy prior odds, but should prove interesting as the night wears on. (if someone get 50% or more they get ALL the delegates, otherwise UT is proportional)
Caveat: Like I said, the priors are pretty squishy on account of fairly limited polling in some of these races, so these odds are more of a place to start before the real resuls roll in, than something you should be using for betting.
That said, if I had to pick an upset I'd go with Clinton in Utah, since it seems like there are a ton of expectations for Sanders on the basis of a single poll, but there's such a dearth of data it's hard to say.
A regular tuesday, but With Elections!
Maybe we could call this Cowboy Tuesday, or Mormon Tuesday?
- Idaho (Democrats only)
Models are set and ready to go, all we need now are results. Polling data is sparse on some of these races, so the priors are a little uncertain, but all that will come to an end soon. Plus modeling the race beforehand is something lots of people do, it's the mid-race modeling you can only get here!
As always, read more on methodology here, I use the 538 model as Bayesian priors when available, otherwise I use polling and wide wide priors (i.e. high uncertainty).
All of these races have a strong favorite, so we could be in for an early night. But if there's a lesson to be learned from the election cycle so far, it's that things rarely go as expected.
Whatcha thinking most likely upset?ReplyDelete
Answered in my edit but if I had to pick one I'd pick Clinton in UtahDelete
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