Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Regular Tuesday

Alright Utah.

It's after midnight your time, how do you only have 12% of the vote in??? I'm not calling it (but the AP etc. have) on Utah, but I'm calling it a night on myself. Goodnight, thanks for following along.

Idaho - Call for Sanders
Of course, it seems like they releaed 100% of the votes all at once, so is call for Sanders even the right phrase?

Utah - Cruz now 100% to get all the delegates

Utah - Call for Cruz

It's interesting that the networks hav called for Sanders but not Cruz. Clearly I see it the opposite way.


Utah - First Results!


Waiting for Utah, This Sanders guy seems to think we have a rigged economy.

Arizona - Call for Clinton

Arizona - Call for TRUMP

Close to calling for Clinton too.


Added an output to test if a candidate gets >50% in Utah. Currently based on the previously discussed squishy prior odds, but should prove interesting as the night wears on. (if someone get 50% or more they get ALL the delegates, otherwise UT is proportional)

Pre-game Odds.

Caveat: Like I said, the priors are pretty squishy on account of fairly limited polling in some of these races, so these odds are more of a place to start before the real resuls roll in, than something you should be using for betting.

That said, if I had to pick an upset I'd go with Clinton in Utah, since it seems like there are a ton of expectations for Sanders on the basis of a single poll, but there's such a dearth of data it's hard to say.





A regular tuesday, but With Elections!

Maybe we could call this Cowboy Tuesday, or Mormon Tuesday?

We have

  • Idaho (Democrats only)
  • Utah
  • Arizona
Models are set and ready to go, all we need now are results. Polling data is sparse on some of these races, so the priors are a little uncertain, but all that will come to an end soon. Plus modeling the race beforehand is something lots of people do, it's the mid-race modeling you can only get here!

As always, read more on methodology here, I use the 538 model as Bayesian priors when available, otherwise I use polling and wide wide priors (i.e. high uncertainty).

All of these races have a strong favorite, so we could be in for an early night. But if there's a lesson to be learned from the election cycle so far, it's that things rarely go as expected.