Tuesday, April 19, 2016

New York Tuesday

YUUUUUUGE nights for both Clinton and TRUMP. See you next tuesday!

TRUMP has a yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge night

Call for Clinton, heading for blowouts.

Call for TRUMP obv

It feels like it's been forever since we had a primary! I fear this one will be over before it started (Clinton and TRUMP) but I modeled it anyway. Clinton and TRUMP are clearly expected to win tonight, so just eeking by clearly won't be enough. In order to beat expectations they need to have yuuuuuge nights. So in addition to the usual outputs, I added:

  1. Does Clinton win by >15%?
  2. Does TRUMP get >50% of the vote?

That should give us something to sweat, even if the actual winner is determined very early. Here's where we're starting:

As always, read more on methodology here, I use the 538 model as Bayesian priors when available, otherwise I use polling and wide wide priors (i.e. high uncertainty).

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