Saturday, November 16, 2019

College Football Week 12

We should talk about the top 25. LSU beat Alabama in the game of the year. 2 vs. 3, battle of 8-0s, high drama. In response my rankings have ... Bama the same and LSU up one. How can you not punish Bama?

Well, data doesn't reward or punish, respect or disrespect. If a team performs differently from the model's expectations, the model adjusts that team's rating. If a team continues to exceed the model's expectations, it'll continually adjust the rating.  I still have LSU below (but very close to) Alabama. That means if they played again I'd still have Bama as a small favorite. Especially with a health Tua. I think that's where the oddsmakers would be too.

 For Baylor and Minnesota, the concept is the same, I've continued to move up their ratings all season, and each have at least one impressive win (I particularly enjoyed Minnesota's last week) the simple fact is they actually are both underdogs to OU and Iowa respectively.

No comments:

Post a Comment