I asked the model, and it says UW could not have looked better this week. Also the model thinks Oregon should be ashamed for scheduling a game against a Jr High School.
- I've added some scenarios and their different likelihoods at the bottom (looks like I calculated Oregon State's likelihood of going undefeated correctly)
- I've replaced week 1 win probability with week 1 results
- Type any FBS team in the gray box, hit enter, and watch the table populate
- As always please let me know if you find any scheduling or outcome errors
- Best week 1 prediction: WSU would lose to Auburn 7.2 (they lost by 7)
- Worst week 1 prediction: UW would only win by 1 (they won by um.. more)
- Had I bet on my model in any game where it differed from Vegas by 5 points or more* I'd be up $382. I don't expect this will even stay above $0 (beating Vegas is hard!) but it'll be fun to track through the season
* Based on betting increments of $22 at -110 ($22 wins you $20). 1 increment where model in 5 points different from Vegas, an additional unit for each point thereafter.