Saturday, June 21, 2014

World Cup: Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Nigeria

See the updated 3x3 grids below, these two teams are playing the most even match of the day, for the biggest next-round stakes of the day

The 3x3 advancement grids for this game surprised me. This game factors massively in who advances from Group F. Bosnia moves into very strong position with a win, but Nigeria does the same with a win of their own. Not only that, but  Nigeria win would would 100% eliminate Bosnia, and nearly vice versa for a Bosnia win. These teams should be going all out!

USA#1 fans get to actually root for the favorite in thos one (kind of a weak favorite though), but still! I'm also still bitter at Nigeria for snubbing noted Seattle Sounder Obafemi Martins. 

Bosnia is kind of a weak favorite (at least to get the win, they're just over 50%. to win, and those squares in the 2x2 dark blue part of the grid (half a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina, half a time) are all nearly exactly equal

This post  has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the predicted outcomes charts work
This post has a little more on the "Who should I root for" section

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