Friday, November 7, 2014

College Football Math: Week 11

Earlier this week, I published some data showing what would happen to the CFP chances of top teams if they win or lose this week. For example, TCU currently stands at 29% to make the CFP. Should they beat K-State this Saturday, their odds will rise to 47%. But should TCU lose this weekend, their chance of making the CFP will be just 2%.

I transformed those numbers (with super serious math) into a measure that expresses the leverage of this Saturday's game for TCU. If TCU wins, 47% to make the CFP. If they lose, 2%. That makes for a leverage score of 45. Winning or losing on Saturday means a 45% swing in TCU's chances to make the playoff.

I calculated that leverage score for every team & game, and added them to a new column on the Watchability grid. Let's look at the top 10 games.

  • CFP Leverage is the column on the far right
  • The numbers shown are the leverage for that game, first for the away team and then the home team
  • For example, in the K-State @ TCU we see 33 / 45. That means that the leverage for K-State is 33, and for TCU is 45
  • CFP Leverage is the team's chance to make the CFP if they win the game in question, minus their chance to make the CFP if they lose the game in question - it's the swing in CFP chances riding on the game
  • The blue bars are based on the sum of the CFP Leverage scores for both teams

Full schedule below

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