I transformed those numbers (with super serious math) into a measure that expresses the leverage of this Saturday's game for TCU. If TCU wins, 47% to make the CFP. If they lose, 2%. That makes for a leverage score of 45. Winning or losing on Saturday means a 45% swing in TCU's chances to make the playoff.
I calculated that leverage score for every team & game, and added them to a new column on the Watchability grid. Let's look at the top 10 games.
- CFP Leverage is the column on the far right
- The numbers shown are the leverage for that game, first for the away team and then the home team
- For example, in the K-State @ TCU we see 33 / 45. That means that the leverage for K-State is 33, and for TCU is 45
- CFP Leverage is the team's chance to make the CFP if they win the game in question, minus their chance to make the CFP if they lose the game in question - it's the swing in CFP chances riding on the game
- The blue bars are based on the sum of the CFP Leverage scores for both teams
Full schedule below