Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Week 7 College Football Math

Both dashboards have been updated through week 6:
Conference Dashboard

Last week I images of a conference dashboard I was working on. I love making dashboards but I'm tiring of that word. I need a new word. Any ideas? I've got bupkus. For now, meet my latest creation: conference dashboards.

Conceptually it's a condensed version of an summary data on an individual team's dashboard, shown for all the teams in the conference at once - rating and rank, odds to win the conference, make a bowl, and make a CFP, and distribution of  wins.

The data's the same, but look at whole conferences at once is interesting. For example, look at the SEC dashboard below. Florida is the model's favorite to win the conference, despite being the 5th best team! 

You can make a dashboard for any conference riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight HERE. Hope you find it interesting.

College Football Playoff

Per my goal to publish more detail from the CFP predictor component of my model, I present the following table. It's all the teams with >10% chance to quality for the CFP. Shown for each team is their current odds to qualify for the CFP, followed by the expected odds if they win or lose their contest this week. Some thoughts:
  • Most teams improve their stock a little with a win, and hurt it a lot with a loss. This should be consistent with intuition, having 0 or 1 losses will likely be required to play in the CFP. Any one loss is a big deal, while any one win is (usually) not.
  • Boom or bust for Michigan State, either they crush Michigan's hopes and help themselves, or they fade away
  • Speaking of Michigan:
    • They aren't here. That's at odds with Vegas oddsmakers by a lot (Michigan is currently 4th or 5th most likely according to most bookmakers)
    • I also have Michigan State as 49% to beat Michigan this week; Vegas has them at 31%
    • I'm not sure what to make of Michigan. It's possible the model isn't adequately capturing Harbaugh. Sure, Michigan has been winning, but they haven't exactly been beating great teams, so the model isn't yet giving them a ton of credit. Regardless, being away apart from Vegas lines makes me nervous 
  • Utah and Stanford are basically the last hopes for the Pac-12 (The rest of the pac add up to about 2%)

Week 7

Week 7 looks awesome. Seriously, look at that slate! I bet any of those top 8 could be the #1 game in a different week. I want to call out every game, they all look eminently. From the redemption of USC, to HARBAUGH, to undefeateds LSU/UF, to Washington>>Oregon, each of the top 9 games have their own compelling narrative (sorry VTech/Miami). This'll be fun.

1 comment:

  1. I have been unable to click on a team name in the Team Dashboard this week and look at individual team results and projections. I have tried it on multiple machines, I think the settings on the Excel online worksheet might not be quite right.