Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Super Tuesday 2.0

Missouri - Call for Clinton

Sorry for the wrong call. Basically Clinton was winning St. Louis big, we took that into account, but then in the last 10% or so of votes in St. Louis she won huge, way bigger than she had been, and overtook Sanders.

Now we can say goodnight.

Missouri - Wow. St. Louis County out of nowhere broke for Clinton even more than it had been. Not only is the race way back under doubt but it looks as if Clinton is the significant favorite.

I'm gonna be up for a while, mostly to see how long it takes the networks to call MO and IL. But I'm calling it on posting for the evening. My first Super Tuesday thread was my most viewed post of all time, then my second Super Tuesday post became my most viewed post of all time, and now this post is my most viewed post of all time. These live model updates are intense, but it seems like people are enjoying them and that makes me happy. Thanks for sweating along with me.

Politico with a whole bunch new votes, including in some areas that were still outstanding, and .......... DRUM ROLL

Call Missouri for Sanders and TRUMP.

Dum dee dum

Missouri gonna keep us here a while I think

Call Illinois.

Illinois holding at 99.8% for Clinton. (7:59pm)

Cmon Illinois.

Illinois at 99.9% Clinton (8:46pm)

Missouri is just being stubborn at this point. But Illinois mayybe we're headed toward closing time?

After the furious action earlier tonight things continue to be fairly stagnant.

There's what's clearly an error in DuPage county reporting Says 0.3% of precincts have reported. Were that true there would be over 4M votes in a county with 1M people. Downsizing that county's importance gives a "winding down" view of Illinois.

Sanders hanging around

Illinois still a sweat?

Illinois winding down

Call Illinois for TRUMP

Illinois and Missouri. Allllmost ready for that call.

Missouri - are we heading toward a night of Clinton and TRUMP with a Kasich footnote?

Illinois - closing time on both sides?

Call Ohio for Kasich. Ran behind the networks on that one, where's my dataaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Not over for the Rs in Ohio. Quite...

Ohio new batch of votes came in, call for Clinton

Ohio - There are calls I'd like to make but we don't have quite enough of a sample of returns from different counties to say we're all the way there.


North Carolina - Call for TRUMP


Reminder that we do make calls, unless otherwise noted they're based on 100 simulations (gotta be quick!), so they really mean >99.5%


Missouri and Illinois Pregame


Florida - Call for TRUMP

What is the network's problem? Florida looks like settled sauce. I'm not sure what they're waiting for.

Pregame for Ohio and North Carolina

NC D - Clinton is expected to win easily, if that changes I'll start modeling.

Already looks settled for Ds, not sure what the networks are waiting on.

Here's the Pre-game for the Rs

With all the big states voting today, and all the delegates being awarded (many of them winner take all on the Republican side) I think this day truly deserves the name Super Tuesday 2.0.

As usual I'll be updating as we go, it's been an incredibly busy week but I have models for all 5 races for both D and R. I may not use them in some of the less suspenseful states (e.g. D for North Carolina).

Unlike last Tuesday, it's going to feel like basically all the polls close at once; I'll be updating as quickly a I can / as quickly as it's material.

We have results now
Florida (likely Clinton, TRUMP)

Polls close at 430 PDT
North Carolina (likely Clinton, TRUMP)
Ohio (D is uncertain, R is likely Kasich)

Polls close at 5 PDT

Both Toss-ups

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