Last year, the model correctly predicted 79.3% of all college football regular season games. This was just a hair better than Vegas lines, which correctly predicted a mere 78.9% of regular season games. This year the model is largely unchanged.
How the model works
- Each team has a rating between 0 and 1. Game odds are calculated using a team's rating and the rating of its opponent
- If both teams have the same rating, each has 50% chance to win
- If a team is rated 0, they never win. If a team is rated 1, they always win
- The highest rated FBS team this preseason checks in at 0.955, while the lowest rated team (Charlotte) is at 0.121
- The full college football season, including regular season games, conference championship games, bowl games, and the CFP, is simulated using the team ratings
- As the season plays out, team ratings are adjusted based on how their on-field performance compares to modeled expectations
- Variable team ratings, described here. are back
- The CFP predictor is also back
- Posterior Win Probability remains a core component of the model's function
I'll be adding data to the right-hand side of the page a little later this week which will update after every week's games. At a glance, you'll be able to see:
- Top & Bottom teams
- The best and worst teams in the country. These are power rankings, meaning they're intended to be predictive of what will happen on the field in future games (rather than describe what happened in past games)
- Games of the week
- Something we all love about college football is that every regular season game is meaningful. A loss in week one could have season-long implications. In that spirit, I've added a snapshot for each of the 3 most watchable games each week that shows each team's chance to win, as well as how winning or losing will impact their chances to make the CFP and a bowl game
- (The GOTW section is a bit smaller than I'd like, tweaking but it's there for now)
As has become standard, I'll post full schedules and a full top games list each week.
Yay for football!
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