Monday, June 16, 2014

World Cup: Belgium vs. Algeria

This turned out to be a pretty interesting game from a win probability perspective. Algeria (the underdog scored the first goal and was up 1-0 into the second half. Notice how their Algeria's green line isn't nearly as high as when favorites have scored first and been up 1-0 into the second half (like in the Argentina game). Belgium's red line is also a lot higher than an underdog's would have been. Obviously favorites are more likely to come back and tie or win. This one did. It was surprisingly to me just how much more likely is all.

I don't have a ton to say about Belgium Algeria at the moment. 

A glance over the predicted outcomes chart, the most likely is a 1-0 victory for Belgium, with a 2-0 snoozer for Belgium not fat behind. 2-1 being my new favorite outcomes (USA#1) I'm personally eyeing those two boxes and crossing my fingers!

This post  has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the predicted outcomes charts work

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