'61: A tie and a brazil win are now equally likely
Wow.
Looking over the predicted outcomes chart:
- When I add up the left hand column, I see that Brazil is slightly better than 50% to keep a clean sheet against the Mexicans tomorrow
- This grid only covers 98% of the outcomes. That could mean a 2% chance of Brazil scoring 6 or more. In reality I imaging the probability of Brazil scoring 6 or more is lower than 2%; up 4 or 5 they'd probably ease up on the reins a little
- Brazil 2-0 is the most likely outcome
This post has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the predicted outcomes charts work
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