Monday, June 16, 2014

World Cup: Brazil vs. Mexico

Thinking that 2% of Brazil scoring 6 isn't going to get home.

'61: A tie and a brazil win are now equally likely


Looking over the predicted outcomes chart:
  • When I add up the left hand column, I see that Brazil is slightly better than 50% to keep a clean sheet against the Mexicans tomorrow
  • This grid only covers 98% of the outcomes. That could mean a 2% chance of Brazil scoring 6 or more. In reality I imaging the probability of Brazil scoring 6 or more is lower than 2%; up 4 or 5 they'd probably ease up on the reins a little
  • Brazil 2-0 is the most likely outcome

This post  has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the predicted outcomes charts work

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