Tuesday, June 24, 2014

World Cup: Costa Rica vs. England, Italy vs. Uruguay

Good Morning!

Pregame Heat Maps

The oddsmakers have England not only favored to beat Costa Rica, but slightly favored to win! This has received some LOLs, but my model has a very similar look. England are very close to 50% to win; a draw and a Costa Rica win are roughly 25% each. Should be a closely contested match.

The Uruguay-Italy match looks to be even closer. In fact it's one of the closest of the tournament. The percentages break down 37%/33%/29% for an Italy win/Uruguay win/Draw. Also that game is for the right to advance! Italy advance with a draw or win, Uruguay advance with a win

This post  has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the predicted outcomes charts work


  1. I hope you can give some world cup betting tips too! Cheers!
    2014 FIFA World Cup Bet

  2. Hi,

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