I've added some explanations / comments to yesterday's ridiculous finish to Group C that will hopefully shed a little more light into how these Advancement Probability graphs work.
Pre-game heat maps
I'm going to stop citing 538 and start citing these great tables that lay out all the explicit advancement scenarios.
- If Nigeria win they are in.
- If Bosnia win Nigeria are in.
- If either game ends in a draw Nigeria are in.
- The scenarios get interesting when Nigeria lose to Argentina and Iran beat Bosnia.