Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Week 5 College Football Math

I've been playing around with making conference dashboards. I'm not ready to put them up live yet, there's something about the look/feel that isn't sitting quite right with me. But check these out and let me know what you think.

edit: by request I've added the ACC

Onto regular business. What was week 4 for the Pac is week 5 for the SEC. Not only do 4 of the top 5 games feature SEC vs. SEC, but the top game for this week is the highest rated game of the year thus far. Alabama's fall from grace has moved their rating very close to Georgia's. Two highly rated teams playing a 50/50 game? Should be fun.

Notes on the data presentation
  • A team is shaded green according to their chance to win (darker = better chance)
  • I'm experimenting with new names for the Watchability index. I really like the idea behind that number, but the name has never sat very well. I'm currently testing out Expected Game Quality, which I like for its simplicity. Don't hesitate to share comments on the new name or suggestions for other names
  • Expected Game Quality (formerly Watchability) is a combined measure of how good the teams are and how likely the game is to be close. Put another way: it's an estimate of how likely the game is to be a close, well-contested game
  • This post has more detail on the math behind Game Quality


  1. I am curious why you dont post the results of your projections each week? It would be nice to know how the projections from the previous week did

  2. You know, I've never really thought about posting the explicit results. Obviously anyone can check the prediction for any game on that team's dashboard for saturday/sunday. And I do a lot of retrospective analysis just on my own that doesn't necessarily get shared. I also go back and forth on how to present that data, but I'll give it a try this week, thanks for the suggestion.

  3. Great! Without manually looking at your projections before the games, and then going back and seeing the results, its impossible to know how you are doing because once the dashboard has been updated with the results for the week, you can no longer see what your projections were for that week. I think this will be a valuable addition.