Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Late Night Update

A few late night updates and comments:
  • Just as a reminder, I update the model daily with the latest polling data so check back often!
  • In general, it's good to be wary of what the polls say during conventions. The polls started moving toward Trump a week or so ago, and the model has reflected that. Clinton's odds of winning have moved from 80% when we started, down to 72%. It is not, however, time for Clinton supporters to overreact. Better to wait until we see polling after the DNC convention this week before trying to parse the effect of the conventions.
  • I made a small change to the way the model handle states with minimal polling. In short, a state like Indiana, which has been minimally polled, those polls are counted more than they would be in a state like Ohio which gets polled practically every day
    • This has impacted a few of those sparsely polled states (like Indiana or Minneota), but had basically no impact on the model as a whole
  • There's a new NV poll that has Trump +5, making NV a (Trump leaning) toss-up

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