Bad Week for Trump

Just a terrible few days of polling for Donald Trump. On August 1st his chance of winning was 27%, since then he's had terrible news cycle after terrible news cycle, and all of the following polls have been published and added to the model. He's now at 21%. (edit: he's now at 19.7% with that Marist poll)


National polls

• NBC - Clinton +9
• Reuters - Clinton +5
• Fox - Clinton +10
• LATimes/USC - Clinton +1
• Rasmussen - Clinton +4
• Reuters - Clinton +4
• Marist - Clinton +15 (!!!)

State Polls 

• OK - Trump +24
• NV - Clinton +4
• NC - Trump +4
• FL - Clinton +6
• PA - Clinton +11
• MI - Clinton +9
• NH - Clinton +17

If he can't win at least two of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, this election is over.