MLS Cup Final Odds

The MLS cup final, between the LA Galaxy and Houston Dynamo, will be played on Sunday, The game will be played in LA which gives the Galaxy a significant advantage. Using a similar methodology as my conference finals model I have calculated they are a 2:1 favorite to win the MLS Cup. The following displays the full list of game outcomes and their probabilitles.

I examined what specific goal outcomes were most probable. LA winning 2-1 is the most likely outcome( 12.3%) and with LA winning 1-0 is a close second (11.6%). The most likely winning outcome for Houston is a 2-1 win (7.4%).

All the game outcomes and their probabilities are listed in the chart below. The chart should be read as follows. 

For the likelihood of a 3-1 LA win, find the the column for LA scoring three goals (in the top grey shaded row) then go down until you intersect with the row Houston scoring 1 goal (in the left grey shaded column). The value where they intersect is your probability.. 6.8%.

I put the same data in list format. I went back and forth on which was easier to read and ended up deciding to include them both.

For one last chart I thought it would be interesting to examine total goals scored and their relative probabilities (yes, all the information below is contained in the outcomes chart, but why do all that work when I've done it already!)

Pac-12 Odds Week 12

Wow. Who would have thought.

Oregon missteps and now Stanford is in the driver's seat for the Pac-12. On October 14th Stanford were 4-2 with losses to UW and Notre Dame with a 4% chance to win the Pac-12. Look at them now.

UW has been on a nice run and could finish the year 9-4! I now have $120 riding on the apple cup as I stand to win $100 if the Huskies win and $20 if the Cougs go winless in the Pac-12. Fingers crossed!

UCLA is (thanks Andy for pointing this out) in a tough spot! If UCLA beat Stanford and Oregon wins, UCLA will travel to Eugene for the Pac-12 title game. If UCLA lose to Stanford they get a rematch much closer to home for the Pac-12 title game.

MLS Odds: DC United may be in better shape than it appears

Edit: DC Gave up a goal in the first half. Guess those 18% chances don't come home as often as you like :-). New odds:

Initial Post
There are three games left in the 2012 MLS season: two conference final games, then one game for the title.

The conference final match-ups follow a two legged format - one game is played at each team's home field and the winner is whoever scores the most goals across both games. In the case of a tie, OT, then penalty kicks, is played in the second game. This gives a small advantage to the team playing at home in the second game (the higher seeded team).

One game in each conference final has been played. LA leads Seattle 3-0 with the remaining game to be played in Seattle, and Houston lead DC 3-1 with the remaining game to be played in DC.

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining three games and was surprised to learn that DC United are not in as weak of a position to win the MLS Cup as their current deficit implies. See below:

Despite being down two goals going into today's second leg, DC has nearly as good a chance to win the MLS Cup as Houston, for the following reasons:

1. Home field advantage in Major League Soccer is quite strong.
2. DC has been excellent at home: they've allowed just 1.0 goals/game while scoring 2.2 goals/game.
3. Houston has been weak on the road, allowing 1.7 goals/game and scoring 1.0 goals/game
4. Today's second leg game is played in DC.
5. If DC makes the championship, that game will be in DC. If Houston makes it, the championship would either be in LA or Seattle.

Actual Math (very short though) below.

I assume goals are Poisson distributed with an average calculated as follows, using Houston and DC as an example:

• Houston (Goals scored by Houston on the road + Goals allowed by DC at home) / 2 = 1.0
• DC (Goals scored by DC at home + Goals allowed by Houston on the road) / 2 =  1.94

The Poisson means that goals are scored at random times, but on average they happen 1.94 times/game for DC. This translates into 0 goals some of the time, 1 goal some of the time, 2 goals, 3 goals, etc. with decreasing frequency.

I simulate OT (if needed) using the same method with the same Poisson averages divided by 3. If the match goes to PKs, I assign 50% win probability to each time. The assumptions inherent with the methodology are:

• Goals scored this season (at home and on the road) are a good predictor of future goals.
• Goals are Poisson distributed.
• Each team has a 50/50 chance when the game goes to PKs.

Pac-12 Odds Week 11

Oregon State is mathematically eliminated from the Pac-12 Title picture with their loss to Stanford. Oregon did well on Oregon State's demise.

Stanford plays Oregon next week. They need to win to keep their title hopes alive.

ASU and Arizona were both eliminated from title contention and it comes down to USC and UCLA. UCLA is a game ahead of UCLA but they have Pac-12 games remaining vs. Stanford AND USC. USC only has to play UCLA and for that reason they the slight edge.

UW is bowl eligible and a favorite to get to 8 win! Woohoo! Sark!

Election Model: Gay Marriage in WA Almost Certain to Pass

The current 68,111 vote lead for 'Yes' projects to a 149,614 margin of victory once all the votes are counted. Yesterday was a great day for civil rights.

Because of the heterogeneity between precincts and the self-selection property of voters who mail their ballots on election day (you know who you are!) it's impossible to come up with a good confidence interval around that 150k margin, so I can't make an Official Call.

But it looks very very good for marriage equality.

Election Model: Success

47/47 states called so far.

Still waiting on CO, FL, and VA. Called them all for Obama.

Let's get home one time!

Election Model: Official Model Prediction

First, we hit 3000 page views yesterday! Thanks for reading. Now to business - what might happen today? I have replaced my lean/likely/solid electoral map with the model's official prediction.

That most likely outcome the following map, where Obama wins every swing state, except North Carolina. This has been the 'most probable' Obama victory for some time. 

Next up: Romney's most likely winning map -where he wins OH, VA, FL, NH, CO, and NV. This map coming to fruition would indicate a serious systematic bias in the polling against Romney. It's interesting that this map is more likely than a map where Romney wins just OH, VA, FL, and one of the smaller states - I interpret this to mean if Romney wins it's because there's been a systematic polling bias. If that has has been happening it's likely been happening in many states, not just the key states.

Next, here's the final histogram. Note that those 3 big spikes (332, 347, and 303 electoral votes for Obama) account for almost 50% of all outcomes.

Last, just for the sake of comparison - here's the final lean/likely/solid electoral map:

Election: Truthfullness

Much has been made of Mitt Romney's ridiculous claim that Jeep is planning to move production to China.

The furor made me think I should refresh and share a chart I've made several times over the last couple of months.

The graph examines each candidate's statements as rated by the independent fact-checker Politifact, displayed in a single easy-to-read graph. The specific numbers have changed a little (as has the presentation) but the takeaway has not changed: Both candidates lie, Mitt Romney lies more.

The data shown include anything said by either candidate which has been rated by Politifact. This includes statements made before the campaign. It includes 202 statements from Mitt Romney, and 452 statements by Barack Obama.

Election Model: WA Projections

Washington being my place of residence, I've taken a particular interest in the local races and ballot measures. I have modeled the interesting WA races (and the Senate race), and have the following results to share:

Each entry contains the race in question, the options (candidates or yes/no) their relative chances of winning, and their projected final vote shares.

The races for governor and district 1 representative are too close to call. The governor's race has been the most extensively polled, and Inslee has shown a small but consistent advantage. Since August he has led in 13 of 15 polls, McKenna has led in one. I love this analogy from 538: Inslee is like a sports team that is ahead in the fourth quarter, he is the favorite to win but he's not a lock..

The goes for Susan Del Bene in the little-polled WA 1 race. Just two polls plus the Cook PVI for that district figure into the winning percentages and projected vote share.

Maria Cantwell will win reelection. Charter Schools and Marijuana will almost certainly pass. Gay Marriage is a strong favorite to pass as well, but it needs all the Yes votes it can get, and I don't want to jinx it.

The methodology I use here is very similar to the presidential model, there are three small changes.

• The races in the WA model are treated independently, individual states in the national election are not treated independently. 
• In assigning final projected vote share I assign more of the independents to 'No' than 'Yes.' I know 538 found the notion of undecideds breaking for the challenger in a presidential race is hokum. I believe ballot measures are different. I did quick study of WA ballot measures and found that as election day has neared, undecideds, on average, have moved more into the 'No' column than the 'Yes' column. 
• I've used a flatter logistic curve to estimate win probabilities. These numbers are all based on fewer polls than the presidential election numbers, and with fewer polls the chance for systematic polling bias (hence the uncertainty) increases. 

Pac-12 Model Week 10

Oregon keeps cruising.

ASU and USC keep crashing (woohoo on the latter - no one likes USC right?).

UCLA has gone from super longshot to favorite against the field in the Pac-12 south with their last two excellent weeks!

UW was never going to figure into the Pac-12 picture but at least they're a near lock to go to a bowl. (5 wins with games pending against Utah, Colorado, and Wazzu).

LOL Wazzu.

Election Model: Updated histogram

Histogram from today's run. Click to see it full size.