Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Super Tuesday!

Call AK. I didn't see a network make this call yet (I could have missed a network), so that's at last 2 or 3 tonight called ahead of the networks. Been a great night posting updates, see you all next time. 

Stunning reversal for Cruz and winding down

Advantage TRUMP

Alaska: Coinflip!

Alaska: TRUMP back on top

Alaska: Cruz with the slight edge

Another winning bronze medal for Rubio

Alaska: Still a coin toss

Last state of the night: Alaska

OK. Official call for Rubio. Also is this the first state where TRUMP isn't in the top two? I'm adding MN to my list of possible states to move to, if needed.

Looking better for Rubio. I know this says 100% but I'm not ready to call it because we're have 0 votes in the 7th and 8th districts and I don't have a good sense for how many votes are available in those districts. That said, it looks like Rubio's headed to his first win.

My data source on MN isn't great. but it looks goodish for Rubio.

Call Vermont

Call Arkansas

Arkansas is coming to an end.

Modeling a bunch of states all at once is hard! Dem modeling ain't happening.

OK is locked, here's how Arkansas looks so far.

Surprise in OK!

That was fast. Next up are MN, AR, 

The things you miss on commutes home. Lock up Virginia for TRUMP

Edit 1
The pre-voting model results for the republicans on MN, TX, and AR. TX and AR are based on extrapolating 538 priors with some added uncertainty, MN is my own rough model and should therefore be looked upon with an additional degree of skepticism. They'll all of course become more and more robust as they night wears on and they learn from the results.

I hope to start on the Democrats shortly after work.


Super Tuesday is upon us! Today, voters in 12 states head to the polls to cast their votes for Clinton, Sanders, TRUMP, Rubio, Cruz, and others.

I won't be modeling all the states, because it's just me by myself and there are no economies of scale in election-night modeling, and many of the states are very likely to go to one candidate.

Very likely TRUMP:

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Georgia
  • Massachusetts
  • Oklahoma
  • Tennessee
  • Vermont
  • Virginia

Very likely Clinton:

  • Alabama
  • Arkansas
  • Georgia
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Virginia

Very likely Sanders:

  • Vermont
When you remove the states that are very likely decided, you're left with Texas, Minnesota, and Arkansas on the republican side, and Oklahoma, Colorado, Minnesota, and Massachusetts on the democratic side. I'm going to ambitiously try and model them all, but I may not get there. I was able to set up the republican states last night, and I'll be adding the democratic states as best I can. Just like before, I'll post updates throughout the evening as the stories change.

Happy Super Tuesday!

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